Archive for October, 2009
US Crop Region Weather Outlooks
Friday, October 30th, 2009
US COARSE GRAIN AND OILSEED AREAS
US MIDWEST: Light rain fell on a large part of the western Corn Belt Thursday while heavier rain caused flooding in many locations from Missouri and southeastern Iowa into Illinois, western Indiana, and southwestern Michigan. Rainfall totals through 0100 CDT this morning from portions of eastern Kansas into southwestern Wisconsin and central Illinois were 0.75 to 1.80 inches with local amounts to 3.06 inches. The remainder of the western Corn Belt received 0.13 to 0.60 inch with local amounts to 0.93 inch. Rain continued since 0100 CDT from parts of eastern Missouri into Indiana and Michigan with estimated amounts of 0.15 to 0.75 inch and locally more. Thursday’s high temperatures in the north were in the 50s with some 40s in the northwest and some lower 60s in Michigan. Highs in the south were in the 50s and 60s. Lows this morning were in the 30s and 40s from the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota to Kansas with 50s and lower 60s in most other areas.
The Midwest will see improved weather for fieldwork after rain exits the western Corn Belt today and eastern Corn Belt Saturday. Parts of the eastern Corn Belt will see locally heavy rain and some flooding is likely. Restricted amounts of rain and snow will occur this weekend through the first ten days in November favoring improved crop and field conditions. Harvesting of summer crops and planting of winter grain should accelerate and become aggressive in many locations. Rain may return Nov. 11-13, although confidence for this precipitation event is very low.
High temperatures today in the north will vary from the 30s and 40s in the northwest to the 60s in parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. High Saturday through Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s. Highs in the south will be in the 50s and 60s with some 40s on many days and some 70s today in the east. Lows in the north will be in the 20s and 30s with some 40s Saturday and Monday. Lows in the south will be in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will alternate between warm and cool during the second week of the two-week outlook.
US DELTA/SOUTHEAST: Flooding expanded in the Delta this morning as rain fell throughout the region. Thursday’s rainfall totals through 0100 CDT this morning were 0.75 to 1.68 inches in the northern Delta while the southern Delta remained mostly dry. Rain was much heavier west of the Delta with amounts of 3.00 to nearly 6.00 inches common from northwestern Louisiana into north-central Arkansas. Some of this heavier rain entered the Delta overnight and estimated rainfall totals since 0100 CDT were 0.20 to 1.50 inches with locally more. Northern areas were wettest. High temperatures Thursday were in the 70s and 80s with some 60s in the Carolinas and Virginia. Lows this morning were in the 60s and 70s from the Delta to Georgia with 50s in the Carolinas and Virginia.
An improving trend for fieldwork will begin this weekend in the Delta and the Southeast. Additional flooding will occur today in the Delta as heavy rain continues through this afternoon. Some crop damage and quality declines are likely. Rain will be lighter in the southeastern states and flooding is not expected. The remainder of the two-week outlook features net drying with no rain on most days. Conditions for fieldwork will become favorable in the Southeast and in well drained areas in the Delta while poorly drained fields in the Delta will need at least several days of drying to allow fieldwork to resume.
High temperatures during the next week in the Delta and the Southeast will be in the 60s and 70s with some 80s today and Saturday and some 50s on most days. Lows Saturday will be in the 40s in the Delta with 50s and 60s occurring in the Southeast. Sunday through Friday will be cool with lows in the 40s with some 30s and some 50s. Temperatures will be a little warmer during the second week of the two-week outlook.
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US Grain, Soybean Weekly Export Sales Estimates - Oct 28
Wednesday, October 28th, 2009
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following is a range of analysts’ estimates of export sales for the week ended Oct. 22. The estimates and prior week’s actual figures encompass combined sales for all marketing years, unless indicated. Units are in thousand metric tons. The report is scheduled for release by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Thursday at 7:30 a.m. CDT (1230 GMT). Actuals are subject to revision by the USDA.
Estimates Actuals
October 22 October 15
WHEAT 400-600 685.1
CORN 300-800 249.5
SOYBEANS 400-750 987.3
SOYMEAL 150-250 115.7
SOYOIL 10-25 23.3
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Weather Outlook For Midwest - Oct 28 2009
Wednesday, October 28th, 2009
MID-DAY WEATHER UPDATE FROM WORLD WEATHER, INC.
October 28, 2009
Notice: Please be aware that these mid-day weather highlights come purely from the various model data. The information does not represent or suggest a change in the World Weather, Inc. morning forecast. The mid-day products are designed for those individuals and traders who wish to trade off of the pure model data. Any official change to the World Weather, Inc. forecast will be mentioned in the “Summary and Comment” section of the report which begins below.
MIDDAY US WEATHER UPDATE — “SUMMARY AND COMMENT”
Torrential rain is still expected to affect the Delta tonight into Saturday. Parts of the region will receive more than 5.00 inches of rain and serious flooding will result with some crop damage possible.
Few significant changes were made by the GFS model today at mid-day with no changes made through the first week of the two-week outlook. Light precipitation was reduced in the Midwest Nov. 5-6 with Wisconsin and northern Illinois into Michigan and northern Ohio seeing the greatest decrease. Some of this decrease was needed, but the GFS model may have removed a little too much precipitation.
Much of the Midwest is now advertised to receive significant precipitation Nov. 8-10. This increase is likely overdone, but the previous model run was likely too dry and a compromise between the two runs is favored.
The bottom line is unchanged today at mid-day. Flood prone areas in the Delta will be vulnerable to flooding and crop damage as widespread, heavy rain occurs tonight into Saturday. Beginning this weekend conditions for fieldwork will improve in the Midwest, Delta, and the Southeast U.S. with the Southeast U.S. seeing the most favorable conditions.
US HIGHLIGHTS (Week 1)
The GFS model made no significant changes to the first week of the outlook.
- The GFS model continues to advertise torrential rain in the Delta tonight into Saturday-5.00-7.00 inches is advertised north and 2.00-5.00 inches is advertised south
World Weather, Inc. will make no changes to the official forecast
US HIGHLIGHTS (Week 2)
The GFS model reduced light precipitation in the Midwest Nov. 5-6 and increased precipitation in much of the Midwest Nov. 8-10. The eastern half of Kansas into Oklahoma is wetter Nov. 8-9.
- The GFS model reduced light precipitation in the Midwest Nov. 5-6-The most significant reduction occurred from Wisconsin and northern Illinois into Michigan and northern Ohio
World Weather, Inc. will make no changes to the official forecast
- The GFS model increased precipitation in most of the Midwest Nov. 8-10-The Dakotas into central and northern Minnesota still see little to no precipitation
No change to the official forecast
- The GFS model increased precipitation in parts of the central and southern Plains Nov. 8-9-Most of the increase occurs in the eastern half of Kansas into Oklahoma
No change to the official forecast
- The GFS model is warmer in the Midwest Nov. 8-12
No change to the official forecast
12:12 pm CT Wednesday, October 28, 2009
DEFINITIONS
AVN — Stands for “Aviation” this model covers 5 days and is updated 4 times per day the model gets its name from its developers which were an aviation unit of the U.S. National Weather Service.
NGM — Stands for “Nested Grid Model” and is a 48-hour forecast that is run twice per day. This is just another of the many short-term models
ETA — Stands for a mathematical variable that was placed in the NGM model to improve its accuracy. This model goes out a little more than three days and is run four times per day.
RUC — Stands for “Rapid Update Cycle” this model is run every 6 hours and is only a 24 hour forecast product
MRF — Stands for “Medium Range Forecast”. This is the infamous “US Model” you here quoted all of the time. It is actually one of many US models, but it is the most widely used and that is what most weather guys are referring to when they say “American Model”. This model is run once per day and becomes available in the pre-dawn hours.
ECMWF — Stands for “European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts”….More commonly referred to as the “European Model”. It was developed by the United Kingdom and was originally designed for European use, but has since proven to be good for much of the Northern Hemisphere. This model updates once a day….usually by 7pm CT.
NOGAPS — Stands for Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. This model is run by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. The model runs out six days and is updated twice daily. The model has recently been improved and seems to be performing better in relation to the MRF and AVN models.
GFS — Stands for Global Forecast System. This model is not new but is a compilation of the AVN and MRF forecast runs. The two models will be merged into one and will be called GFS. Feb. 18, 2003 is the date that the model output will be merged on a permanent basis.
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Canada reaps average wheat crop despite late harvest
Tuesday, October 20th, 2009
* 10 percent of spring wheat unharvested
* 5 percent of durum, 8 percent of barley in field
* 20 pct of canola, much oats unharvested
* Canola, oat, spring wheat futures rise
(Adds canola and oat impact)
By Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Western Canadian farmers are struggling to finish their latest harvest in several years, with 10 percent of the spring wheat crop lying in fields too wet to combine, a Canadian Wheat Board official said on Tuesday.
The wet, cold October has been a cruel ending to an unpredictable growing season, especially for farmers in northern farm regions of Saskatchewan. But overall, the Western Canada grain-growing belt is reaping an average sized wheat crop with better than average quality, said Bruce Burnett, the CWB’s director of weather and market analysis.
The region’s harvest may be the latest in five years, Burnett said, adding that completion rates vary widely.
Canada is one of the world’s top exporters of spring wheat, used in baking, and the leading shipper of durum, used in making pasta. Five percent of the durum crop and 8 percent of barley are still in the field, Burnett said.
At least 20 percent of the overall canola crop and roughly 40 percent of the oat crop in Saskatchewan — a major growing area — are unharvested.
The Wheat Board is one of the world’s largest grain marketers, with a government-granted monopoly on Western Canada’s sales of wheat and malt barley.
Farmers need a two-week stretch of dry weather to dry out wheat enough to combine it, Burnett said. That must come before Western Canada’s first lasting snowfall, which typically arrives in late October or early November.
That lengthy dry stretch looks unlikely, with weather patterns suggesting precipitation every three to four days, Burnett said.
“It doesn’t look like we’ll get all of the crop in this year,” he said.
The wheat and barley in the fields is already lower quality to feed grade and leaving it over winter leaves it vulnerable to wildlife eating it.
A tenth of the spring wheat crop amounts to 1.5 million to 1.6 million tonnes still in the field, not likely enough to make a major impact on Minneapolis Grain Exchange futures in a year of big global production, Burnett said.
MGE front-month futures <MWEZ9> have gained 11 percent since Oct. 1.
The late harvest is unlikely to reduce the size of Canada’s wheat crop — last forecast at 24.58 million tonnes by Agriculture Canada on Oct. 8 — and overall quality will still be better than average.
Between 75 and 80 percent of wheat should make the top two grades, Burnett said, compared with the typical level of 65 percent.
On average, about 10 percent of wheat grades at feed quality, but this year’s crop should have a slightly lower percentage of feed, Burnett said.
Barley appears to be of average quality.
About 20 percent of canola remains unharvested, but that figure is as high as 30 percent in some parts of Western Canada, said Denise Maurice, vice-president of crop production for the Canola Council of Canada.
Maurice is advising farmers to quickly harvest the crop — even in its wet condition — so they can manually aerate it later.
As of last week, Saskatchewan farmers had harvested 59 percent of their oats, with another 33 percent swathed, and they haven’t done much since, said Grant McLean, cropping management specialist for the provincial government. Many fields are too soft for tractors.
The late harvest has supported both ICE Canada canola and Chicago Board of Trade oats. Front-month canola <RSX9> has gained 4.2 percent since Oct. 1, while oats <OZ9> has gained 11.2 percent.
(Editing by Marguerita Choy) ((rod.nickel@thomsonreuters.com; +1 204 947 3548; Reuters Messaging: rod.nickel.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: CROPS CANADA/
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Export Sales Highlights
Friday, October 16th, 2009
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 2-8, 2009.
Wheat: Net sales of 480,200 metric tons were down 37 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (126,900 MT), Nigeria (38,700 MT), the Philippines (38,200 MT), unknown destinations (36,600 MT), Canada (34,200 MT), Guatemala (33,100 MT, including 30,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), the United Arab Emirates (27,500 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (26,200 MT), and Algeria (25,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Brazil (1,800 MT). Exports of 524,200 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (103,500 MT), Canada (63,900 MT), Japan (41,200 MT), Mexico (36,200 MT), Guatemala (30,100 MT), and Venezuela (29,700 MT).
Corn: Net sales of 631,800 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (190,400 MT, including 56,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,300 MT), South Korea (119,400 MT, including 123,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,700 MT), Colombia (73,800 MT), Mexico (70,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (36,900 MT), Morocco (31,100 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the United Arab Emirates (29,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Taiwan (27,300 MT). Decreases were reported for Honduras (7,600 MT). Optional origin sales totaling 1,700 MT for Colombia were canceled. Exports of 670,100 MT were down 41 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (157,800 MT), South Korea (121,400 MT), Egypt (85,800 MT), Mexico (62,000 MT), Colombia (55,600 MT), Canada (37,200 MT), and Taiwan (36,500 MT).
Barley: There were no sales reported during the week. Exports of 3,100 MT were to Canada.
Sorghum: Net sales of 47,200 MT were for Japan (46,000 MT) and Mexico (1,200 MT). Export of 19,300 MT were to Mexico (19,200 MT) and Canada (100 MT).
Rice: Net sales 95,200 MT were up 83 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (33,300 MT), Japan (26,200 MT), Taiwan (15,600 MT), El Salvador (5,000 MT), and Nicaragua (3,400 MT, including decreases of 12,800 MT). Exports of 74,800 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (16,800 MT), Haiti (15,500 MT), Nicaragua (13,400 MT), Honduras (12,200 MT), and El Salvador (4,100 MT).
Soybeans: Net sales of 654,500 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (184,100 MT), Taiwan (176,200 MT), France (60,000 MT), Mexico (59,800 MT), Saudi Arabia (55,000 MT, switched from China), and South Korea (31,800 MT, including 29,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (45,300 MT). Exports of 605,300 MT were up 78 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (369,100 MT), Mexico (119,800 MT), South Korea (28,600 MT), Tunisia (26,800 MT), Canada (25,000 MT), and Germany (20,900 MT).
Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 466,100 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (278,500 MT), Australia (40,000 MT), Egypt (30,000 MT), Japan (28,900 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Syria (22,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Honduras (7,600 MT). Net sales of 100 MT for delivery in 2010/11 were for Canada. Exports of 101,600 MT were primarily to the Philippines (43,700 MT), Canada (21,800 MT), Mexico (16,600 MT), and Venezuela (6,000 MT).
Soybean Oil: Net sales of 24,000 MT were down 88 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported for Venezuela (6,000 MT), Cuba (5,000 MT), India (3,300 MT), Peru (3,000 MT), and Nicaragua (3,000 MT). Exports of 4,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (1,400 MT), Guatemala (1,300 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT).
Cotton: Net Upland sales of 58,000 running bales were down 37 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (29,400 RB, including 2,400 RB switched from Hong Kong), Turkey (22,800 RB), Japan (5,600 RB), Thailand (4,300 RB, including 700 RB switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (2,800 RB), and Malaysia (2,200 RB). Decreases were reported for Mexico (9,600 RB), El Salvador (6,300 RB), and Hong Kong (2,400 RB). Net sales of 27,600 RB for delivery in 2010/11 were mainly for Mexico (19,200 RB) and El Salvador (6,300 RB). Exports of 213,500 RB were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Turkey (50,500 RB), China (47,200 RB), Mexico (35,000 RB), South Korea (14,300 RB), Vietnam (12,100 RB), and Bangladesh (8,300 RB). Net American Pima sales of 14,600 RB were down 67 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for India (6,600 RB), Pakistan (2,500 RB), China (2,200 RB), and Peru (1,200 RB). Exports 7,800 RB were up 37 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were India (3,400 RB), China (2,700 RB), and Pakistan (800 RB).
Hides and Skins: Net sales of 411,200 pieces, all whole cattle hides, were up 8 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary buyers were China (201,600 pieces), South Korea (74,500 pieces), Taiwan (58,200 pieces), Hong Kong (25,700 pieces), and Mexico (19,600 pieces). Exports of 413,300 pieces were down 21 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide exports of 404,000 pieces were primarily to China (208,600 pieces), Taiwan (43,800 pieces), South Korea (43,500 pieces), Hong Kong (30,900 pieces), Mexico (24,600 pieces), and Thailand (19,500 pieces).
Net sales of 111,100 wet blues were down 21 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary buyers were China (41,400 unsplit and 1,000 grain splits), Italy (22,800 unsplit), the Dominican Republic (16,000 unsplit), and Mexico (10,900 grain splits and 200 unsplit). Exports of 112,500 hides were down 15 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (47,000 unsplit), Mexico (23,700 grain splits and 3,200 unsplit), Italy (17,800 unsplit), and the Dominican Republic (6,400 unsplit). Net sales of splits totaling 6,500 pounds resulted as increases for China (6,700 pounds) were partially offset by decreases for Taiwan (200 pounds). Exports of 736,400 pounds were up noticeably from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were China (422,600 pounds), South Korea (270,000 pounds), and Taiwan (43,800 pounds).
Beef: Net sales of 8,500 MT were primarily for South Korea (2,100 MT), Canada (1,700 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), Japan (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT). Net sales of 300 MT for the 2010 marketing year (which begins Jan. 1) were mainly for Hong Kong (200 MT). Exports of 10,300 MT were mainly to Mexico (2,900 MT), Japan (1,900 MT), Vietnam (1,600 MT), Canada (1,400 MT), and South Korea (1,100 MT).
October 16, 2009 1 FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA
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