Archive for January, 2010
EHedger Presenting At The Top Producer Seminar Thursday
Wednesday, January 27th, 2010
Top producer attendees: Please join us for an informative and lively seminar covering how to determine your production cost and manage margins for your operation. We will also be delivering a market outlook for corn and soybeans, so don’t miss this chance to build up your risk management skills ahead of a period of potentially challenging market price action.
Location:
Top Producer Seminars
Intercontinental Hotel
505 North Michigan Avenue
Chicago IL 60611
Times:
8.15-9.10: Toledo Room, 5th Floor
10.55-11.50” Camelot Room, 3rd Floor
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World’s farmers to grow less wheat in 2010-CWB
Friday, January 15th, 2010
* CWB sees smaller global wheat crop of 644 mln in 2010
* Forecasts Canada 2010 wheat crop at 24 mln tonnes
* Canada seen growing less durum, more barley in 2010
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Farmers will produce the world’s smallest wheat crop in three years in 2010 as big global supplies weigh down prices and steer more acres to other crops, the Canadian Wheat Board said on Friday.
In its first market outlook of 2010, the Wheat Board, one of the world’s biggest grain marketers, also said the outlook for durum wheat is negative because of burdensome supplies.
“It’s not that world (wheat) demand has been extremely poor. It’s just that our production has been quite high,” said Bruce Burnett, the Wheat Board’s director of weather and market analysis.
The world will produce 644 million tonnes of all types of wheat, down 4.7 percent from the 2009 crop, he said. It would be the smallest global wheat crop since farmers harvested 610 million tonnes in 2007, but still the third largest in the past 15 years.
Weak prices due to the global wheat glut will cause Canadian farmers to plant slightly less spring wheat, used in baking, but significantly fewer acres of durum wheat, which is used to make pasta, Burnett said. That shift, along with an expected drop to normal yields, will produce Canada’s smallest all-wheat crop in three years of 24 million tonnes as farmers move to oilseeds and pulse crops that look more profitable, Burnett said.
The 26.5-million tonne wheat crop Canada harvested last autumn is of high quality but low protein levels.
The CWB has a government-granted monopoly to sell Western Canada’s wheat and malt barley. Canada is the world’s largest exporter of spring wheat and durum.
The Wheat Board’s projection for the Canadian wheat crop may be slightly conservative, said Lawrence Yakielashek, general manager and vice president of grain trader Toepfer Canada Ltd.
Falling fertilizer and chemical prices make wheat an appealing choice on paper, and many farmers rotating crops this year will have to consider it, he said. The CWB has also done a good job marketing the 2009 crop, which may encourage farmers to stick with wheat, he said.
The CWB’s wheat projections include a 2.2 percent production drop to 135 million tonnes in the European Union, the world’s biggest producer, and 5 percent reduction to 57 million tonnes in the United States.
Global supplies are so large that it will take bad growing weather to tighten stocks and support prices, Burnett said.
Dryness in western parts of the Canadian Prairie continue to be a concern, while the CWB is also closely watching the impact of parched soil in India, Burnett said.
The CWB pegs the 2010 world durum crop at 33.7 million tonnes, down 9.9 percent from last year’s crop.
World barley production in 2010 looks to drop 6.2 percent to 134.4 million tonnes, which also falls below the crop’s five-year average of 140.6 million tonnes, he said. Canada’s production should edge slightly higher to 10 million tonnes, Burnett said.
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Brazil cuts ethanol blend in gasoline to 20 pct
Monday, January 11th, 2010
* Reduction is valid for 90 days starting Feb. 1
* Producers, analysts see limited effect on supply, prices
(Adds details, background)
BRASILIA, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Brazil’s government has temporarily cut the mandated amount of ethanol blended into gasoline to 20 percent from 25 percent due to low supplies of the biofuel, the energy ministry said on Monday.
The reduction will be in force for 90 days from Feb. 1.
Brazil mandates a blend of anhydrous ethanol in all commercial gasoline aside from the pure hydrate ethanol sold at filling stations for use in flex-fuel cars.
The 5 percentage-point reduction in the blend is expected to result in an additional 100 million liters (26.4 million gallons) of ethanol available per month, or around 7 percent of the monthly demand for hydrous ethanol, according to analysts.
Brazil’s government occasionally adjusts the ethanol blend in gasoline within the range of 20 to 25 percent, which is determined by law, to adjust to local supplies and prices. The current 25-percent blend has been in effect since July 2007.
Producers and analysts said a 90-day reduction in the blend would have a limited impact on supplies and prices, and that the government’s decision is an attempt to contain hydrous ethanol prices at the pump during an election year.
“The measure doesn’t have any justification from the point of view of supply,” said Plinio Nastari, president at Datagro analysts, referring to supplies of anhydrous ethanol.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of cane-based fuel ethanol. Output in the current 2009/10 season fell short of expectations due to excess rains since June, which cut the concentration of sucrose in cane and reduced the time producers could work in the fields.
Mills were unable to gather around 50 million tonnes of cane which will now be harvested this year.
Moreover, mills prioritized sugar production over ethanol this season, as raw sugar futures were trading near their highest levels in over three decades.
This is the first time since 2000/01 that Brazil’s ethanol output will fall from the previous season. Cane industry association Unica expects ethanol output in the center-south to total 23.4 billion liters, down from 25.1 billion in 2008/09.
Record demand for the fuel this year has also contributed to a steep reduction in stocks.
The decision was taken by the Interministerial Ethanol and Sugar Council (Cima) consisting of the agriculture, mines and energy, finance and development ministries. (Reporting by Maria Carolina Marcello and Inae Riveras; editing by Jim Marshall) ((inae.riveras@thomsonreuters.com; 55 11 5644 7728; Reuters Messaging: inae.riveras.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((For help: Click “Contact Us” in your desk top, click here [HELP] or call 1-800-738-8377 for Reuters Products and 1-888-463-3383 for Thomson products; For client training: training.americas@thomsonreuters.com ; +1 646-223-5546))
Keywords: ETHANOL BRAZIL/BLEND
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ADMIS Pre USDA Report Comments
Wednesday, January 6th, 2010
The below is ADM Investor Services’ thoughts on what to expect in the upcoming key USDA supply and demand estimates report, due out 7.30 am on January 12. Click here for the full version.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010, marks the date for the annual USDA report. It is one of the bigger reports of the year. Highlights include final production estimates for corn and beans from last years crop, Quarterly Stocks, and an initial look at new crop winter wheat planted acreage prospects.
For corn and beans, we begin to put in the final pieces of total supply for the ‘09-10 crop year while we become more focused on total use through the remainder of the marketing year. First quarter stocks for corn and beans will give an initial trend in use through the September-November period. For wheat, we will be at the halfway point of the marketing year for use. While at the halfway point for wheat in the old crop marketing year, we will also get a peek at new crop prospects when the USDA issues its first estimate of winter wheat plantings.
Although we have a long way to go until the winter wheat harvest along with seeing how all wheat crop prospects develop, it also helps set an early tone on what other type of planted acreage mixes we can estimate for the upcoming spring (that being for corn, beans, oats, rice, and cotton crops).
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EHedger Marketing Seminar With AgStar in Le Center, MN
Wednesday, January 6th, 2010
| February 3, 2010 | ||
| 1:00 pm | to | 4:00 pm |
Join EHedger for an informative market outlook and hedging seminar in Le Center, MN on the afternoon of February 12. AgStar bank will also be presenting on financing and crop insurance options.
Event: 12- onwards in Le Center, MN. Location to be confirmed.
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