November soybeans settled at a fresh low of 9.19 ¾ on Wednesday. July soybeans are still flirting with the contract low at 9.35 ¼. The majority of open interest lies in the July contract so if this level is breached that would probably be the best chance to see stops trigger an accelerated move.
Our opinion on beans remains the same. We believe that the US and World carryout levels are rising at an aggressive pace and prices are not fully reflecting the supply glut. The strong US Dollar Index has also put the US export market in a less competitive situation. The new crop corn-bean ratio is still at 2.44 to 1. After planting is over this ratio will have less of a reason to hold within a boundary and focus will shift more toward weather in July.
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