Grain Commentary 5-28-15

November soybeans fell below $9.00 for the first time today but managed to settle at $9.02 down 4 ½ on the session. December corn was up 3 ¼ cents at $3.70 after failing to take out the contract low. July wheat was up a penny at $4.88 ¾.

This is that lull point in the year when most of the acres have been planted and the timeframe for a spring weather event has already passed. Grains have been testing and making fresh contract lows recently which is likely the result of the heavy hedge pressure from all of the un-priced bushels held into the spring. Historically it is not common to make a bottom in June but if we get too cheap this may be the year that the market bucks the seasonal trends. If you consider producers that are holding onto 85% federal crop insurance policies for corn, AND have an actual production history (APH) that matches what they expect to grow, there really isn’t much downside price risk.

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